The Next War of the World

Interesting read over at the Belmont Club where Wretchard discusses an article in Foreign Affairs by Niall Ferguson, describing what factors he thinks will influence the coming years. It begins with this provocative summary:

The twentieth century was the bloodiest era in history. Despite the comfortable assumption that the twenty-first will be more peaceful, the same ingredients that made the last hundred years so destructive are present today. In particular, a conflict in the Middle East may well spark another global conflagration. The United States could prevent such an outcome -- but it may not be willing to.

Maybe They Hate Warm Beer

I know I'm getting to this way late in the game, but I'm interested in the reaction of Western societies to the threat of Islamic terrorism, particularly when there is no apparent provocation perpetrated by said society. Earlier this summer, I posted about the arrests of terror suspects in Canada, wondering

...how Canadians would have reacted to being hit [by a massive terrorist attack]. Would they turn inward in any orgy of self-flagellation, blaming their own society for the evil inflicted upon them, like so many on the American left? Or would they fight like lions, as their grandfathers did in WWII, to combat the assault on the ideals and institutions that make Canada great?

More recently, Germany foiled a terror plot to bomb a train. News reports indicate that the Lebanese student suspected of planting a train bomb that failed to explode had contacts in Hamburg, the latest link to the northern port city where three of the Sept. 11 suicide pilots prepared for their attacks.

According to the article:

The planned attack here stunned Germans who thought the country's vehement opposition to the Iraq war would insulate it from becoming a terror target almost five years after the attacks on Washington and New York.

As was the case in Canada, Germans are taking this opportunity to assess the potential causes of the existential threat to their society. There are a myriad of reasons/excuses employed by Islamists to justify their murderous actions. I'm not aware of the reasoning--if you can call it that--behind the effort to kill innocents in Germany (who knows, maybe the jihadis are pissed that the Germans didn't finish the job in the 1940s). However, I agree with Captain Ed about the fundamental reason why the threat exists and his exhortation to be more vigilant. He writes:

Western nations have to understand that Islamofascists do not target them for their foreign policy; they target the West because it isn't Islamic. We need to start taking that threat seriously and performing tough investigations before offering visas to people from nations known to house terrorist organizations. Allowing the son of a Hizb-al-Tahrir officer into the country on a student visa seems very foolish, and if the Germans want to stop terrorist attacks, it has to stop that kind of foolishness as a first step towards sanity.

Hooray For Hollywood

To say that I was shocked by this story, which references an ad taken out in the L.A. Times by several major film stars, is to put it mildly.

NICOLE Kidman has made a public stand against terrorism.

The actress, joined by 84 other high-profile Hollywood stars, directors, studio bosses and media moguls, has taken out a powerfully-worded full page advertisement in today's Los Angeles Times newspaper.

It specifically targets "terrorist organisations" such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.

"We the undersigned are pained and devastated by the civilian casualties in Israel and Lebanon caused by terrorist actions initiated by terrorist organisations such as Hezbollah and Hamas," the ad reads.

"If we do not succeed in stopping terrorism around the world, chaos will rule and innocent people will continue to die.

"We need to support democratic societies and stop terrorism at all costs."

A who's who of Hollywood heavyweights joined Kidman on the ad. The actors listed included: Michael Douglas, Dennis Hopper, Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis, Danny De Vito, Don Johnson, James Woods, Kelly Preston, Patricia Heaton and William Hurt.

Directors Ridley Scott, Tony Scott, Michael Mann, Dick Donner and Sam Raimi also signed their names.

Other Hollywood powerplayers supporting the ad included Sumner Redstone, the chairman and majority owner of Paramount Pictures, and billionaire mogul, Haim Saban.

What a pleasant surprise. Good for them.
(h/t Instapundit)

Thinking The Unthinkable

John Derbyshire at The Corner was reminded by a reader of a 2003 essay by The Belmont Club entitled, "The Three Conjectures." It's an interesting article with some scary conclusions.

The so-called strengths of Islamic terrorism: fanatical intent; lack of a centralized leadership; absence of a final authority and cellular structure guarantee uncontrollable escalation once the nuclear threshold is crossed. Therefore the 'rational' American response to the initiation of terrorist WMD attack would be all out retaliation from the outset.

I don't quite understand the mathematical equations he employs in the body of the post, but he makes a good point about the bygone days of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

The terrorist intent to destroy the United States, at whatever cost to themselves, has been a given since September 11. Only their capability is in doubt. This is an inversion of the Cold War situation when the capability of the Soviet Union to destroy America was given but their intent to do so, in the face of certain retaliation, was doubtful.

The notion that radical Islamists have the intent, but (thankfully) not the capability, to use WMD is sobering, for in all likelihood it's just a matter of time before they get it. Unfortunately, the emotion-based mentality of the Muslim world so often overwhelms reason and cannot see the opportunity placed before it--the world's superpower is spending its blood and treasure (and is willing to spend billions more) to modernize an Arab country's infrastructure and stabilize its political structure.

Throughout Arab culture conspiracy theories abound, virulent anti-Semitim and anti-Americanism are used as psychological crutches, and every effort we make to alleviate their suffering (e.g. reconstruction in Iraq, freeing Afghanistan from the Taliban, saving Albanian muslims from the Serbians, trying to prevent civil war in Lebanon in the early 1980s, trying to prevent the starvation of hundreds of thousands of Somalis, giving billions of dollars in aid to the Palestinians, etc.) is spun to our disadvantage. This irrationality is discouraging because, without agreement on a basic set of facts, we are left with precious little common ground from which to move forward.

The light of hope dims.

Senator Joe Lieberman's primary loss last night to anti-war candidate, Ned Lamont, is troubling because of what it portends relative to the deterioration in the American will to complete the task at hand. If America gives up, there's no question that it will embolden the terrorists and states, such as Iran, sworn to our destruction. I'm concerned that the reconstruction and political stabilization of Iraq will not be completed in time to prevent the strong currents of hatred, which have pulled that region for centuries, from becoming too difficult to overcome. Our window opportunity to make a positive difference in the Middle East before Iran's mullahs and whack-job President get the bomb, is closing.

It is quite clear that Islamic terrorists want to obliterate Israel and the U.S. I hate to be fatalistic, but I fear that it's just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose.

Looks like I'm not alone.

LTA @ Plush

The Lower Than Angels show at Plush Cafe was a success. I had to borrow everything I played that night, excpet my trusty 1965 Vox AC30, which sounded amazing with Bob Hartry's 1970s vintage Gibson ES330. Bob played like a madman, once soloing while on his knees bending over backwards. Quite the rockstar, he is. Mike was solid on bass and background vocals. Darren was, of course, brilliant (as always) and Wade was not only great on drums, but funny (as always).

During the first song, "Nothing Can Separate Us" the index finger on my right hand starting bleeding profusely, to the point where it was causing it to stick to my middle finger. Although it was very rock 'n roll, I felt bad because I was getting blood on Bob's guitar. So, someone threw me some napkins and I cleaned it up. No harm, no foul, no ambulance. Next we played our new song "Running Out Of Time." It was the first time that all five of us played the song together. Darren basically learned his parts on the plane back from Texas and I went over them (and some minor arrangement changes) with him before the show. We pulled off the song almost flawlessly and it was well received. I was really happy about that. The rest of the set went very well and was loads of fun.

Cherie came to the show and brought my oldest daughter, who said she really enjoyed her first concert. It must have been strange for her to see her dad in a rock band. But, she had a lot of fun and was really thankful to come. All in all it was a great night.

Macca's Nasty Divorce

Besides being a living legend and a musical hero of mine, Paul McCartney is quite a nice man, according to a number of people I know who have met him. I feel bad that he is going through a nasty divorce with his estranged wife, Heather. After reading this article, it is clear that she is a bitch. It's sad that Paul married her on the rebound after Linda died. Just bad judgment in a time of sorrow, I guess. I hope that he doesn't have to give her much. It sounds like she's been spoiled enough as it is.

LTA @ Plush Cafe

Lower Than Angels will be headlining a show at Plush Cafe in downtown Fullerton on Friday night, August 4th at 9 p.m. The location is 207 N. Harbor Blvd., Fullerton (714-738-5100). Other bands will include Illustrious Gentlemen, The Jim and the Chris, and My Tragic Ending. Hope to see you there!